iziRisk Construction budget We are bidding a 12-month construction project with a $750,000 budget. Monthly labor runs about $52k (low $40k, most likely $52k, high $70k), material prices could rise anywhere from 3% to 15%, and there is roughly a 20% chance of a 4-8 week weather delay that adds cost. What is the probability we exceed the budget, and how much contingency should we hold?
iziRisk Cybersecurity losses We want to quantify our company's annual cyber loss exposure across about 10 threat types — phishing, ransomware, unauthorized access, data breach and others. Each threat has an annual frequency (say ransomware around 0.5 events per year) and a highly variable cost per event (roughly $50,000 to $2,000,000), and some controls reduce frequency or severity. What is our expected annual loss, and what 95th-percentile loss should we hold capital against?
iziRisk FX / currency exposure We hold a €5,000,000 receivable due in six months but report in US dollars. EUR/USD is currently 1.08 with annualized volatility near 9% and a slight upward drift. Model the exchange rate as geometric Brownian motion to find the distribution of the dollar value at settlement, the probability it falls below our budgeted 1.05, and the 5% Value-at-Risk of the position.
iziRisk Insurance portfolio We underwrite about 2,000 accident policies. Claim frequency is roughly Poisson (around 120 claims per year) and each claim's severity is lognormal (mean near $8,000, occasionally above $100,000). We collect $1.2M in premiums and cede any loss above $250,000 to a reinsurer. Simulate the net technical result: expected profit, the probability of an underwriting loss, and the capital needed at the 99.5% level.
$ iziRisk Credit portfolio (RAROC) We manage a loan portfolio of 1,000 exposures totaling about $50M. Each borrower has a probability of default between 2% and 8% by segment, a loss-given-default around 45% (uncertain), and an exposure at default. Simulate the portfolio loss distribution to obtain expected loss, unexpected loss (economic capital at 99.9%), and RAROC given our interest margin.
iziRisk Operational loss (VaR/CVaR) Our operations face several recurring loss events — supply-chain delays, process errors, internal fraud and equipment failure. Each has an annual frequency and a cost per event, some rare but severe. We want the aggregate annual operational-loss distribution, the expected loss, and the 99% VaR and CVaR to size our operational-risk buffer.
iziRisk Project schedule delay We are planning a multi-phase project with tasks in sequence. Each task's duration is uncertain — design 3-6 weeks, procurement 4-10 weeks, construction 12-20 weeks — and some tasks can overlap. There is also a 25% chance of a permitting delay. What is the distribution of the total finish date, the probability we miss our 40-week deadline, and which task contributes most to the risk?
iziRisk Investment NPV / IRR We are evaluating a $2,000,000 investment expected to generate cash flows over five years. Annual revenue growth is uncertain (5% to 20%), the operating margin varies (25% to 40%), and the discount rate is around 12%. What is the distribution of the project's NPV and IRR, and the probability the NPV is negative?
iziRisk Ransomware: inherent vs residual We want to compare our ransomware risk before and after controls. Without controls we expect around 0.8 incidents per year with a per-incident loss between $100,000 and $3,000,000 (business interruption plus recovery). Backups and EDR cut the frequency by about 60% and the severity by about 30%. Show the inherent and residual annual loss distributions and the expected reduction in the 95th-percentile loss.
iziRisk Commodity price risk We will buy 10,000 tonnes of a raw material in three months. The current price is $600 per tonne with annualized volatility around 25%. Model the price with geometric Brownian motion to get the distribution of our total purchase cost, the probability it exceeds our budgeted $6.3M, and the 95% worst-case cost we should hedge or provision for.
$ iziRisk Loan default portfolio We have lent money to 40 counterparties for a total of $500,000. Each loan has its own default probability (2% to 25%) and a recovery rate between 20% and 60% if it defaults. What is the distribution of our total credit loss, the expected loss, and the probability we lose more than $100,000?
$ iziRisk Cash-flow at risk (liquidity) We want to project our monthly cash position over the next 12 months. Monthly collections are uncertain (they vary roughly ±20% around plan), fixed obligations like payroll and rent are known, and there is a chance of a large one-off outflow. What is the probability our cash balance turns negative in any month, and how large a credit line should we secure?
iziRisk M&A synergy realization We are evaluating a $400M acquisition expected to deliver cost and revenue synergies over three years. Synergy capture is uncertain (60% to 110% of the $60M target, ramping unevenly by year), integration costs run $15M-$35M, and the deal premium is fixed. What is the distribution of the deal's NPV net of the premium, and the probability the acquisition destroys value?
iziRisk R&D portfolio value Our R&D portfolio has 8 projects at different stages, each with an uncertain probability of technical success (15% to 70%), an uncertain development cost, and an uncertain peak revenue if successful. What is the distribution of the portfolio's risk-adjusted NPV, which projects contribute most to the expected value, and the probability the portfolio as a whole is profitable?
iziRisk Solar farm investment (LCOE/IRR) We are evaluating a 50 MW solar farm costing $45M to build. The capacity factor is uncertain (22% to 28% depending on irradiance), the power purchase price has some merchant exposure, and O&M costs escalate uncertainly. What is the distribution of the project's levelized cost of energy and IRR, and the probability the IRR falls below our 8% hurdle rate?
iziRisk Mining project feasibility We are assessing a new copper mine requiring $600M of capital. Ore grade is uncertain (0.6% to 0.9% copper), the long-run copper price assumption ranges from $3.50 to $5.00 per pound, and capex could overrun by 10-30%. What is the distribution of the project's NPV, the probability of a positive NPV, and which input drives the most value risk?
iziRisk Real estate development IRR We are developing a 200-unit residential project with a $50M construction budget. Construction cost could run 5-15% over budget, the lease-up period is uncertain (6-14 months to full occupancy), and achieved rents may vary ±10% from underwriting. What is the distribution of the project's IRR, and the probability it falls below our 15% target?
iziRisk ERP implementation overrun We are implementing a new ERP system budgeted at $8M across data migration, integration, customizations and training. Each workstream has its own cost range based on similar past projects, and there is a 30% chance of a scope change adding $500k-$1.5M. What is the distribution of total project cost, the probability we exceed our $10M contingency ceiling, and which workstream drives the most cost risk?
iziRisk Drug development risk-adjusted NPV We are evaluating a drug candidate currently in Phase II. Probability of advancing through Phase III, regulatory approval and reaching peak sales varies by stage (industry base rates apply), development cost per phase is uncertain, and peak annual sales if launched range from $200M to $1.2B. What is the risk-adjusted NPV distribution of continuing development, and the probability the program is worth pursuing versus out-licensing now?
iziRisk Business email compromise We want to quantify our exposure to business email compromise and wire-fraud attempts. We estimate 8-15 credible attempts per year, of which historically about 10% succeed in tricking someone into a wire transfer, with amounts ranging from $20,000 to $500,000. Dual-approval controls we're considering could cut the success rate roughly in half. What is our expected annual loss with and without the new control, and the 95th-percentile loss?
iziRisk Third-party vendor breach exposure We rely on about 30 vendors with access to our customer data. Each vendor has an estimated annual breach probability (2% to 12% depending on their security maturity) and, if breached, our contractual and notification liability ranges from $100,000 to $5,000,000 depending on data sensitivity and volume. What is our expected annual liability from vendor breaches, and which vendors contribute most to the tail risk?
iziRisk DDoS business interruption Our e-commerce platform is exposed to DDoS attacks. We estimate 3-6 attacks per year with durations of 1-12 hours, and each hour of downtime costs us roughly $40,000-$80,000 in lost sales. A mitigation service under evaluation would cut both frequency and average duration by about half. What is our expected annual loss from DDoS with and without the mitigation service, and does the service's $250,000 annual cost pay for itself?
iziRisk Insider threat data loss We want to quantify the risk of insider data exfiltration — a departing or disgruntled employee taking sensitive data. We estimate 2-5 credible incidents per year with a cost per incident (investigation, legal, competitive harm) ranging from $50,000 to $2,000,000 depending on the data involved. A data-loss-prevention tool under evaluation is expected to cut incident severity by roughly 40%. What is the expected annual loss with and without the DLP tool, and the 90th-percentile loss?
iziRisk Cloud misconfiguration exposure As we migrate more workloads to the cloud, we want to quantify the risk of a misconfiguration exposing customer data. We estimate the annual probability of at least one exposure event at 15-35% depending on how fast we adopt cloud security posture management (CSPM) tooling, and the cost of an exposure event ranges from $80,000 to $3,000,000. What is our expected annual loss under our current pace of CSPM adoption versus an accelerated rollout?
iziRisk OT security incident (plant) Our manufacturing plant's operational technology (OT) network could be compromised by ransomware or an intrusion, forcing a production stoppage. We estimate 0.3-0.6 credible incidents per year, each causing 1-5 days of downtime at roughly $150,000 per day of lost production, plus recovery costs of $200,000-$800,000. Network segmentation under consideration would cut incident frequency by about a third. What is our expected annual loss with and without segmentation?
iziRisk Data breach regulatory fine exposure We want to quantify our exposure to a data-privacy regulatory fine following a breach. We estimate an annual breach probability of 5-15%, and if breached, the fine (under GDPR-style rules) could range from 0.5% to 4% of our $300M annual revenue depending on severity and our compliance posture, plus legal and remediation costs of $500,000-$3,000,000. What is our expected annual regulatory exposure, and the 95th-percentile combined cost?
iziRisk Equity portfolio VaR We manage a $40M diversified equity portfolio across 25 positions with varying volatilities (15% to 45% annualized) and imperfect correlations between sectors. We want the portfolio's return distribution over a 10-day holding period, the 1-day and 10-day 95% Value-at-Risk, and which positions contribute most to portfolio risk.
iziRisk Bond portfolio interest rate risk We hold a $60M fixed-income portfolio with an average duration of 6 years. The path of interest rates over the next 12 months is uncertain, with plausible moves of -150 to +250 basis points depending on central bank policy. What is the distribution of the portfolio's mark-to-market value in 12 months, and the probability of a loss exceeding 5%?
iziRisk Airline fuel hedging We consume about 400 million gallons of jet fuel per year. Jet fuel prices are volatile (annualized volatility near 35%) and we are deciding how much to hedge with futures 12 months forward. What is the distribution of our unhedged annual fuel cost, how much a 50% hedge ratio reduces the tail risk, and the cost-benefit of hedging versus staying exposed to spot prices?
iziRisk Multi-currency revenue translation We generate revenue in five currencies (EUR, GBP, JPY, BRL, MXN) that we translate back to USD for reporting. Each currency has its own volatility and correlation with the others, and our EPS guidance assumes current spot rates. What is the distribution of our translated USD revenue and EPS impact over the next fiscal year, and the probability that FX alone causes us to miss guidance?
iziRisk Electricity price risk (industrial) Our plant consumes about 80 GWh of electricity per year, exposed to wholesale spot prices that are highly volatile (occasional price spikes during peak demand). We are evaluating a fixed-price power purchase agreement covering 70% of our load. What is the distribution of our unhedged annual power cost, and how much does the PPA reduce our exposure to extreme-price months?
iziRisk Real estate portfolio valuation risk We hold a commercial real estate portfolio valued using a capitalization-rate approach. Cap rates could move 50-150 basis points depending on interest rate direction, and rent growth assumptions range from -2% to +6% depending on market conditions. What is the distribution of our portfolio's net asset value in 12 months, and the probability of a valuation decline exceeding 10%?
iziRisk Agricultural basis risk We are a grain trader who buys wheat from farmers and hedges with futures contracts, but the local cash price and the futures price don't move perfectly together (basis risk). Basis has historically ranged from -$0.40 to +$0.30 per bushel, and we trade about 2 million bushels per season. What is the distribution of our margin given basis uncertainty, and the probability our hedged position still loses money?
$ iziRisk Trade credit / receivables risk We extend trade credit to about 300 business customers with total receivables of $8M. Default rates vary by customer tier (large accounts 1-3%, mid-market 4-8%, small accounts 8-18%), and recovery on defaulted receivables ranges from 20% to 50%. What is the distribution of our annual bad-debt expense, the expected loss, and the reserve we should hold at the 95th percentile?
$ iziRisk Auto loan portfolio credit risk We hold a portfolio of 5,000 auto loans totaling $75M. Probability of default varies by credit tier (prime 1.5%, near-prime 5%, subprime 12%), loss-given-default depends on vehicle depreciation and ranges from 30% to 55%, and exposure at default declines as loans amortize. What is the distribution of portfolio credit losses, the expected loss, and the economic capital needed at the 99.5% level?
$ iziRisk Mortgage portfolio stress test We hold 800 residential mortgages totaling $180M. Default probability rises with loan-to-value ratio and is sensitive to a potential house-price decline (we model scenarios from 0% to -20%), and losses given default depend on how far underwater the loan is. What is the distribution of portfolio losses under a range of house-price scenarios, and the capital buffer needed to survive a severe downturn?
$ iziRisk Credit card portfolio expected loss We manage a credit card portfolio with $120M in outstanding balances across 40,000 accounts. Roll rates from current to delinquent to charge-off vary by credit score band and are sensitive to unemployment, which we model as uncertain over the next 12 months. What is the distribution of net credit losses, the expected annual charge-off rate, and the reserve needed under a recessionary scenario?
$ iziRisk Corporate bond portfolio credit VaR We hold a $30M portfolio of corporate bonds across 25 issuers in different sectors and rating bands. Each issuer has its own default probability and recovery rate, and defaults tend to cluster during downturns (correlated risk). What is the distribution of portfolio credit losses over the next year, the expected loss, and the 99% credit Value-at-Risk?
$ iziRisk Key supplier credit exposure We depend on a small number of critical suppliers, one of which shows signs of financial distress. If that supplier fails, we estimate it would take 3-9 months to qualify an alternate source, during which our production would be constrained, costing an uncertain amount per month of disruption. What is the distribution of the financial impact of a supplier failure, and how much a dual-sourcing investment would reduce our expected loss?
$ iziRisk Sovereign/counterparty exposure Our bank has counterparty exposures across 15 countries with varying sovereign risk ratings. Each country-counterparty pair has its own default probability (linked to sovereign rating) and loss-given-default, and exposures are uncertain due to trade finance drawdowns. What is the distribution of our total expected credit loss across the portfolio, and which countries contribute most to our tail risk?
iziRisk Property catastrophe reinsurance We insure $2 billion of coastal property exposure and are structuring a catastrophe reinsurance program. Hurricane frequency and severity in our region are uncertain (we model 0-3 landfall events per year with losses following a heavy-tailed distribution), and we are evaluating a reinsurance layer attaching at $100M with a $200M limit. What is the distribution of our retained losses with and without the layer, and the probability the layer is exhausted in a given year?
iziRisk Health insurance claims pool We insure a group health plan covering 5,000 members. Claim frequency per member follows a roughly Poisson pattern with occasional high-cost claimants (organ transplants, cancer treatment) driving severe tail losses, and we are evaluating a stop-loss reinsurance threshold at $250,000 per member. What is the distribution of total claims, the expected cost with and without stop-loss, and the premium we should charge to break even at a target loss ratio?
iziRisk Cyber insurance underwriting We underwrite cyber liability insurance for 500 small-to-mid-size business policyholders. Breach frequency and severity vary significantly by industry (retail and healthcare are higher-risk than professional services), and policy limits range from $1M to $10M. What is the distribution of our annual claims, the expected loss ratio, and the capital we need to hold at the 99.5% solvency level?
iziRisk Life insurance mortality risk We have written 10,000 term life policies with a combined $500M of face value. Actual mortality experience could diverge from our pricing assumptions (we model a range of -20% to +30% versus expected, reflecting pandemic or medical-advance scenarios), and policy sizes vary widely. What is the distribution of our claims payout in a given year, and the reserve adequacy at the 99% confidence level?
iziRisk Marine cargo insurance We insure marine cargo shipments for an import/export business, covering about 2,000 shipments per year with an average insured value of $150,000. Loss frequency (damage, theft, total loss) is low but severity is highly variable, and we offer deductibles of $10,000-$50,000 depending on the policy. What is the distribution of our annual claims, the expected loss ratio, and the appropriate premium given our target combined ratio?
iziRisk Product liability reserve adequacy We carry product liability insurance and need to set claims reserves for incidents already reported but not yet settled (case reserves) plus incidents incurred but not reported (IBNR). Claim development patterns are uncertain — some claims settle quickly, others take years and can develop well above initial estimates. What is the distribution of our ultimate claims cost, and the probability our current reserves are inadequate?
iziRisk Extended warranty pricing We sell extended service plans on consumer electronics with a 2-year term. Claim frequency (device failure requiring repair or replacement) and claim severity (repair cost or replacement value) both vary by product category, and we want to price the plan to hit a target 65% loss ratio. What is the distribution of claims cost per plan sold, and the premium that achieves our target loss ratio with adequate margin?
iziRisk Crop insurance yield risk We insure a portfolio of corn and soybean farms across a region against yield shortfalls. Yield per acre is highly weather-dependent (drought, excess rain, early frost) and we pay an indemnity when actual yield falls below a guaranteed percentage of historical average. What is the distribution of our total indemnity payouts in a given season, the expected loss, and the premium needed at our target loss ratio given historical weather variability?
iziRisk Manufacturing warranty claims reserve We manufacture appliances and offer a 3-year warranty. The defect rate per unit is uncertain (0.5% to 3% depending on the product line), the average repair or replacement cost per claim ranges from $80 to $600, and we ship about 200,000 units per year. What is the distribution of our annual warranty cost, the expected reserve we should book, and the 95th-percentile cost we should hold capital against?
iziRisk Airline disruption compensation cost We operate 150 flights per day and are exposed to weather and mechanical disruptions that trigger passenger compensation under regulation. We estimate a disruption rate per flight (higher in winter months) and a compensation cost per disrupted flight that varies with passenger load and delay length. What is the distribution of our annual compensation cost, and the reserve we should hold for a severe-weather year?
iziRisk POS system outage losses Our retail chain of 400 stores depends on a point-of-sale system that occasionally suffers outages. We estimate an outage frequency per store per year and an outage duration in hours, with lost sales per hour of outage varying by store size. What is the distribution of our aggregate annual lost-sales exposure, and how much a redundant backup system (at a known annual cost) would be expected to save?
iziRisk Call center SLA breach cost Our outsourced call center has an SLA requiring 90% of calls answered within 60 seconds, with financial penalties for breaches. Call volume varies seasonally and unpredictably, and staffing levels are set in advance based on a forecast that carries its own error. What is the distribution of SLA penalty costs over the year, and the additional staffing investment that would most reduce our expected penalty exposure?
iziRisk Pharma batch rejection risk We manufacture a biologic drug in batches costing $400,000 each to produce, with roughly 20 batches per year. Each batch has a probability of failing quality release (contamination, potency out-of-spec) that varies with process maturity, and a failed batch is a total loss plus potential regulatory scrutiny. What is the distribution of our annual batch-failure cost, and how much a process-improvement investment would be expected to reduce it?
iziRisk Logistics fleet breakdown cost We operate a delivery fleet of 300 trucks. Each truck has an annual breakdown probability that increases with vehicle age, and a breakdown causes a delivery delay with a penalty cost per late shipment plus repair cost. What is the distribution of our annual breakdown-related cost, and how much a preventive-maintenance program would be expected to reduce total cost given its own upfront cost?
iziRisk Data center downtime SLA cost We operate a data center serving enterprise customers under SLAs that credit customers for downtime beyond 99.95% availability. We estimate an annual outage frequency and duration distribution based on historical incidents, with SLA credits and customer-churn risk both scaling with downtime severity. What is the distribution of our annual SLA-credit cost, and the value of an infrastructure redundancy investment that would improve our availability.
iziRisk Food safety incident cost We operate a restaurant chain of 200 locations. Food safety incidents (contamination, foodborne illness reports) occur with a location-level annual probability, and the cost per incident varies widely — from a minor local closure to a chain-wide recall and reputational damage affecting sales at all locations. What is the distribution of our annual food-safety-related cost, and the 99th-percentile 'bad year' cost we should plan for?
iziRisk Internal fraud loss exposure We want to quantify our exposure to employee fraud and internal control failures (expense fraud, payment diversion, inventory theft) across our organization of 2,000 employees. We estimate an annual incident frequency and a loss severity per incident based on internal audit history and industry benchmarks, with proposed additional controls expected to reduce both. What is our expected annual fraud loss with and without the new controls, and the payback period on the control investment?
$ iziRisk Startup cash runway Our startup has $3M in the bank and burns cash at an uncertain monthly rate ($200,000 to $350,000 depending on hiring pace and revenue ramp). Our next funding round is targeted for month 9 but could slip 0-4 months. What is the probability we run out of cash before closing the next round, and how much additional buffer should we raise now to reduce that risk to an acceptable level?
$ iziRisk Retail seasonal working capital We are a retailer building inventory ahead of the holiday season, committing $12M to purchase orders 4 months before peak sales. Sell-through is uncertain (70% to 110% of forecast) and affects how quickly we convert inventory back to cash. What is the distribution of our peak working-capital need, the probability we breach our $15M credit facility, and the cash-flow timing risk around the season.
$ iziRisk Multi-currency treasury pooling We collect receivables in 6 currencies and pool cash centrally to fund operations, but collection timing in each currency is uncertain and FX conversion costs add friction. What is the distribution of our consolidated cash position over the next quarter, the probability of a shortfall in any single currency requiring an intercompany loan, and how much a committed multi-currency credit facility would reduce that risk?
$ iziRisk Insurer claims-paying liquidity As an insurer, we need enough liquid assets to pay claims as they come due without forced asset sales. Claims timing and severity are uncertain, especially after a catastrophe event, and a portion of our assets are illiquid. What is the distribution of our monthly claims-payment need over the next year, and the liquid-asset buffer required to meet a 1-in-100-year claims scenario without selling illiquid holdings at a loss?
$ iziRisk Bank deposit outflow stress Under a liquidity stress scenario, we need to estimate potential deposit outflows over 30 days. Outflow rates vary by deposit type (retail insured deposits are stickier than uninsured corporate deposits) and could accelerate under adverse news. What is the distribution of our 30-day net outflow, the probability our liquidity coverage ratio falls below the regulatory minimum, and the high-quality liquid asset buffer we should hold?
$ iziRisk Project finance debt service coverage We financed an infrastructure project with debt requiring a minimum 1.25x debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) each year. Project cash flows are uncertain (usage/demand risk plus operating cost variability), and a DSCR breach triggers a covenant default. What is the distribution of our annual DSCR over the debt's 15-year term, and the probability of a covenant breach in any given year?
$ iziRisk Agricultural cooperative seasonal liquidity Our agricultural cooperative pays members for their harvest upfront but only collects from buyers 2-5 months later, with both harvest volume and buyer payment timing uncertain. What is the distribution of our peak seasonal funding gap, the probability we need to draw more than our $5M credit line, and the line size that would cover the gap in 95% of seasons?
$ iziRisk Nonprofit grant funding gap Our nonprofit relies on multi-year grants that are renewed with uncertain timing and amount, while program spending commitments are largely fixed. A major grant renewal (40% of our budget) could be delayed 0-6 months or come in 10-30% below the prior amount. What is the distribution of our cash position over the next 12 months, and the reserve fund size needed to avoid a program cut with 90% confidence?